All courses / AI Operations / Module 2 / Chapter 11
Learning objectives
After the lesson the participant can:
- Explain why a capacity forecast is stated as an interval with a back-test and an uplift
- Distinguish usage decisions from rate decisions and say which belong in an agent's mandate
- Design floors, windows and a veto that keep an optimising agent from removing recovery margin
- Set remediation windows for vulnerabilities by maintenance group, with a ceiling for the agent's deploy action
Key concepts
- Forecast as a distribution
- A single value cannot decide how much margin to buy. The forecast gives an interval, the interval is accepted on a back-test of its coverage, and an uplift is applied where measured coverage falls below the nominal, as in CAP-HM-2028-014 where 80 per cent was measured against a nominal 95.
- Usage and rate decisions
- A usage decision, such as switching a resource off, can usually be undone and the cost of error is an interval in which the service was too small. A rate decision, such as a commitment to a term or purchase, cannot, and is a finance decision that is not delegated to an agent.
- Floor
- A lower bound the agent cannot cross, expressed in the unit of the claim it protects: a redundancy floor, a standby floor that allows reduction only after a dated failover test at the reduced size has passed, a retention floor and protected labels.
- Veto
- The right of the service owner, and of the incident commander during an incident, to block, reverse or suspend a proposal of the optimising agent without giving a reason to the agent.
- Maintenance group
- A set of assets of similar characteristics with a routine patch window and an emergency trigger set in advance. In the chapter's illustrative defaults, exposed Tier 1 assets have 14 days routinely, and on reported exploitation mitigation within 24 hours and patching within 72 hours.
Interactive exercises
Do them here and get feedback at once. Choose a card and then where it belongs, or drag it.
Interactive exercise 1 · Sort
Ceilings at the start for sustaining work
Sort each action of O5 Sustain by the highest degree of delegation that the chapter regards as defensible at the start.
Interactive exercise 2 · Match
Patch windows by maintenance group
Match each maintenance group of the chapter's illustrative table for Hansa Mutual with its routine window.
Teaching plan
| 15 min | The teacher introduces the quiet work of O5 Sustain and capacity planning: demand structure, lead time of supply as the forecast horizon, and the forecast as a distribution. |
| 15 min | Participants list the mechanisms by which a cost-optimising agent can reduce resilience while every availability measure stays green, starting from a shrunk standby. |
| 15 min | Input on energy reporting under Article 12 of Directive (EU) 2023/1791 and on lifecycle dates: certificates, end of support, licences and vulnerability windows by maintenance group. |
| 35 min | Exercise: participants set guardrails for a rightsizing agent. |
| 10 min | Debrief contrasting Nordvik Region's irreversibility and lead time with Hansa Mutual's agent autonomy. |
Discussion
- A target such as reducing the cloud bill by ten per cent will be met by the cheapest route available. What would you add to the target so that the route does not pass through the recovery margin?
- With public certificate validity scheduled to fall to 47 days by March 2029, what in your renewal process still depends on a person remembering?
- The chapter reports patch velocity as a distribution by maintenance group and never by person. What would be lost, and what protected, by that choice in your organisation?
Written exercise
Exercise · 35 minutes
Guardrails for a rightsizing agent
For a cost or capacity agent acting on a set of services, yours or the scope of Hansa Mutual's agent HM-OPS-004, list the services with their tier. Write the floors: redundancy per Tier 1 service, a standby floor that cites a dated failover test, a retention floor and protected labels. Set the windows in which the agent may act, excluding freezes and scheduled restore tests. State the ceiling per action, with deletion advisory only and a quarantine before a person deletes, and commitments not delegated. Name who holds the veto, and say how savings and the absence of harm will be verified by something other than the agent's own report.
Deliverable: A guardrail policy with floors tied to dated tests, windows, ceilings per action, veto holders and an independent verification of savings and harm.
Self-test
Choose an answer to see whether it is right, or open the answer below each question.
On whom does the annual data centre reporting duty of Article 12 of the Energy Efficiency Directive fall, according to the chapter?
Show the answer
A. The owner or operator of a data centre with installed IT power demand of at least 500 kW
The duty falls on the owner or operator of the data centre at or above 500 kW. An organisation that rents capacity obtains the figures from its provider; attributing energy to services is its own work.What is the book's starting ceiling for an agent's action of deleting an unused resource?
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C. Level 0 Advisory for the agent; a person deletes after quarantine
Delete is irreversible except from backup, so the agent only advises and a person deletes after a quarantine period. Level 4 is never used for data that cannot be restored.Under the standby floor, when may an optimising agent's proposal to reduce a recovery site be accepted?
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B. When a failover test at the reduced size has passed within the recovery time objective, with dated evidence
The standby floor ties the size of the recovery site to a restore test. Availability measures stay green while no failover is happening, so only a dated passing test at the reduced size supports the reduction.